Consensus estimate
The average of analysts' forecasts for a company's future results, used as the benchmark for beats and misses.
A consensus estimate is the average, and sometimes the median, of analysts' forecasts for a metric such as EPS or revenue in a future period. Data providers compile it from many brokers, and the number of contributors varies. Stale estimates that have not been updated can distort the average.
On our site, consensus is shown beside each reported figure, with the number of analysts where available. A small number of estimates means the consensus is less reliable.
Traders care because the market prices results relative to expectations, not relative to last year. The consensus is the bar a result is measured against.
Worked example (illustrative numbers, not real data): five analysts estimate EPS at 1.10, 1.20, 1.15, 1.05 and 1.30. The mean is 1.16. Reported EPS of 1.18 beats the consensus by 0.02, or about 2 percent.