The odds

What traders are betting will happen, from prediction-market prices. A price of 70¢ means the market sees a 70% chance.

QuestionChanceVolumeResolves
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Fed: next meeting · polymarket
82%
$8.9MOct 28, 26
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Fed: rate path · polymarket
96%
$8.9MDec 31, 26
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
Crypto · polymarket
4%
$8.5MJan 1, 27
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Fed: next meeting · polymarket
18%
$7.8MOct 28, 26
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
Crypto · polymarket
9%
$6.7MJan 1, 27
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Fed: next meeting · polymarket
1%
$6.7MOct 28, 26
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Fed: next meeting · polymarket
0%
$6.0MOct 28, 26
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?
Crypto · polymarket
0%
$5.6MJan 1, 27
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Fed: rate path · polymarket
0%
$5.3MDec 31, 26
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026?
Crypto · polymarket
1%
$5.1MJan 1, 27
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Fed: rate path · polymarket
0%
$5.0MDec 31, 26
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Fed: next meeting · polymarket
0%
$4.5MOct 28, 26
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Fed: rate path · polymarket
0%
$4.3MDec 31, 26
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?
Crypto · polymarket
8%
$4.3MJan 1, 27
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Fed: rate path · polymarket
0%
$4.2MDec 31, 26
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Fed: rate path · polymarket
0%
$4.0MDec 31, 26
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
Crypto · polymarket
28%
$3.8MJan 1, 27
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Fed: rate path · polymarket
0%
$3.5MDec 31, 26
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
Fed: rate path · polymarket
2%
$3.5MDec 31, 26
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?
Crypto · polymarket
3%
$3.5MJan 1, 27
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Fed: rate path · polymarket
1%
$3.4MDec 31, 26
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Fed: rate path · polymarket
0%
$3.3MDec 31, 26
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?
Crypto · polymarket
9%
$3.1MJan 1, 27
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
Stocks · polymarket
6%
$3.1MDec 31, 26
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Fed: rate path · polymarket
0%
$3.0MDec 31, 26
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Fed: rate path · polymarket
0%
$3.0MDec 31, 26
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?
Crypto · polymarket
0%
$2.9MJan 1, 27
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Fed: rate path · polymarket
0%
$2.8MDec 31, 26
US recession by end of 2026?
Growth · polymarket
8%
$2.3MJan 30, 27
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?
Crypto · polymarket
5%
$2.3MJan 1, 27
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?
Crypto · polymarket
3%
$1.7MJan 1, 27
Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026?
Crypto · polymarket
49%
$1.5MJan 1, 27
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Largest company · polymarket
80%
$1.4MDec 31, 26
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?
Gold · polymarket
5%
$1.3MDec 30, 26
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Largest company · polymarket
19%
$1.1MDec 31, 26
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Largest company · polymarket
0%
$1.1MDec 31, 26
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Largest company · polymarket
0%
$1.0MDec 31, 26
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?
Crypto · polymarket
20%
$967.4KJan 1, 27
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Largest company · polymarket
0%
$949.5KDec 31, 26
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?
Crypto · polymarket
1%
$877.2KJan 1, 27
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Largest company · polymarket
0%
$819.6KDec 31, 26
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Largest company · polymarket
2%
$797.0KDec 31, 26
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
Fed: next meeting · polymarket
76%
$776.0KDec 9, 26
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?
Stocks · polymarket
99%
$710.7KDec 31, 26
Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026?
Crypto · polymarket
14%
$705.7KJan 1, 27
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?
Fed: next meeting · polymarket
23%
$680.6KDec 9, 26
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
Fed: rate path · polymarket
80%
$647.6KDec 9, 26
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
Fed: next meeting · polymarket
1%
$604.0KDec 9, 26
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?
Fed: next meeting · polymarket
0%
$563.2KDec 9, 26
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in October?
Crypto · polymarket
0%
$533.4KNov 1, 26
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?
Crypto · polymarket
50%
$484.3KNov 1, 26
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in October?
Crypto · polymarket
2%
$481.6KNov 1, 26
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in October?
Crypto · polymarket
1%
$461.4KNov 1, 26
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?
Crypto · polymarket
3%
$444.0KNov 1, 26
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?
Fed: next meeting · polymarket
3%
$420.2KDec 9, 26
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in October?
Crypto · polymarket
1%
$401.0KNov 1, 26
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?
Fed: rate path · polymarket
22%
$386.5KDec 31, 26
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
Stocks · polymarket
95%
$338.4KDec 31, 26
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in October?
Crypto · polymarket
17%
$338.2KNov 1, 26
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 in October?
Crypto · polymarket
16%
$304.8KNov 1, 26
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October?
Oil · polymarket
34%
$291.2KOct 31, 26
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?
Crypto · polymarket
32%
$272.9KNov 1, 26
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in October?
Oil · polymarket
19%
$216.9KOct 31, 26
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?
Stocks · polymarket
14%
$212.0KDec 31, 26
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in October?
Oil · polymarket
72%
$204.2KOct 31, 26
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in October?
Oil · polymarket
40%
$191.6KOct 31, 26
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?
Gold · polymarket
3%
$185.0KDec 31, 26
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?
Fed chair · polymarket
14%
$177.0KDec 31, 26
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in October?
Crypto · polymarket
28%
$174.3KNov 1, 26
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?
Fed: rate path · polymarket
66%
$166.9KDec 31, 26
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?
Stocks · polymarket
12%
$164.6KOct 31, 26
Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
Stocks · polymarket
1%
$164.6KDec 31, 26
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in October?
Oil · polymarket
3%
$147.7KOct 31, 26
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in October?
Oil · polymarket
1%
$147.0KOct 31, 26
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?
Stocks · polymarket
90%
$145.7KNov 1, 26
Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?
Fed: rate path · polymarket
12%
$137.5KDec 31, 26
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in October?
Oil · polymarket
1%
$131.5KOct 31, 26
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?
Oil · polymarket
17%
$127.1KOct 31, 26
Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
Stocks · polymarket
33%
$119.5KDec 31, 26
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in October?
Crypto · polymarket
2%
$115.0KNov 1, 26
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December?
Gold · polymarket
1%
$114.1KDec 30, 26
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?
Fed: next meeting · polymarket
33%
$113.8KJan 27, 27
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?
Stocks · polymarket
89%
$111.2KDec 31, 26
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by October 31?
Stocks · polymarket
99%
$110.0KOct 31, 26
Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2026?
Stocks · polymarket
2%
$107.1KDec 31, 26
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?
Gold · polymarket
21%
$106.3KDec 30, 26
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
Stocks · polymarket
51%
$104.5KDec 31, 26
Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?
Stocks · polymarket
2%
$102.3KDec 31, 26
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of December?
Gold · polymarket
2%
$100.9KDec 30, 26
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?
Fed: next meeting · polymarket
65%
$89.5KJan 27, 27
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in October?
Crypto · polymarket
69%
$89.2KNov 1, 26
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in October?
Crypto · polymarket
11%
$82.7KNov 1, 26
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?
Largest company · polymarket
91%
$78.7KOct 31, 26
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?
S&P 500 · polymarket
3%
$77.4KDec 31, 26
Will Ethereum reach $2,900 in October?
Crypto · polymarket
14%
$77.4KNov 1, 26
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December?
Gold · polymarket
3%
$75.1KDec 30, 26
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $12,000 by end of December?
Gold · polymarket
1%
$71.1KDec 30, 26
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?
S&P 500 · polymarket
9%
$70.2KDec 31, 26
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in October?
Crypto · polymarket
24%
$67.3KNov 1, 26
Will 9-10 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
Stocks · polymarket
1%
$66.2KDec 31, 26

Source: Polymarket public market data. Prices are probabilities implied by trading, not forecasts by Finance Desk.