The odds/Fed: rate path

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

Fed funds (upper)2Y Treasury
80%▲ 4 pts in 7 daysResolves December 9, 2026

Chance over time

527190Sep 16Sep 23Sep 30Oct 6Oct 13

Implied probability in %, from polymarket's price. Dashed line: 50%.

How it resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.