The odds/S&P 500

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?

SPX
9%▲ 3 pts in 7 daysResolves December 31, 2026

Chance over time

95294Jan 6Mar 17May 26Aug 4Oct 13

Implied probability in %, from polymarket's price. Dashed line: 50%.

How it resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.

Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.

All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.