Dot plot
A chart of each Fed policymaker's anonymous projection for the policy rate, published in the Summary of Economic Projections.
The dot plot is a chart in the Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections showing where each participating policymaker expects the federal funds rate to be at the end of the current and following years, and in the longer run. Each dot is anonymous. The projections are published at four of the eight meetings each year, in March, June, September and December. The chart shows the median projection and the spread around it.
On our site, the dot plot is shown as a distribution with the median highlighted. The median is the reference point; the spread shows disagreement.
Traders care because the median path shapes the expected policy trajectory. A quarter-point shift in the median can move front-end rates and the dollar.
Worked example (illustrative numbers, not real data): the median projection for year-end moves from 3.50 percent to 3.25 percent, a quarter-point cut in expectations. If the dots are widely spread, traders read the path as less certain, which can keep yields volatile.