Implied probability
The probability of an outcome implied by the market price of a contract that pays a fixed amount if it happens.
In a prediction market, a contract that pays 1 dollar if an event happens and nothing otherwise trades between 0 and 1 dollar. Its price is the implied probability: a price of 0.63 implies a 63 percent chance. The figure is a market estimate, not a forecast with a known error.
On our site, implied probabilities are shown as percentages and update as trades occur. They can differ from polls or models; treat the gap as a question to examine, not an answer.
Traders care because the price is a tradable view on the odds, and it can react to new information faster than news coverage. Thin markets can be moved by a few traders. Fees, capital costs and the time until resolution also mean the price is not a pure probability.
Worked example (illustrative numbers, not real data): a contract pays 1.00 if an event happens and trades at 0.40, an implied probability of 40 percent. A trader who believes the true chance is 55 percent expects a profit of 0.55 minus 0.40, or 0.15 per share, before fees.