Polymarket
An online prediction market where users trade shares on the outcomes of real-world events.
Polymarket is an online prediction market on which users buy and sell shares tied to the outcomes of events, from elections to economic data. Each share pays a fixed amount if its outcome occurs and nothing otherwise, so its price is read as an implied probability. Settlement follows the resolution rules written for each market.
On our site, Polymarket prices appear as probabilities next to related news and data. Check each market's resolution rules and trading volume before relying on a price, since small markets can be moved by a few trades.
Traders care because it gives a direct, money-backed read on specific events that can be compared with futures pricing or polling. It is still a market with its own liquidity and rules, not an official source.
Worked example (illustrative numbers, not real data): a market on a rate cut trades at 0.72 with 50,000 shares traded, an implied probability of 72 percent. A smaller market on the same question trades at 0.60, which suggests the thin market is less reliable.