Will the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025?
0%unchanged over 7 daysResolved: No
Chance over time
Implied probability in %, from polymarket's price. Dashed line: 50%.
How it resolves
The U.S. government collected $82.2b in customs duties in FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2024/notes-to-the-financial-statements19.pdf).
This market will resolve according to the value of customs duties collected in FY 2025 according to the Financial Report of the United States Government published by the Treasury Department for FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/financial-report/)
If the Treasury Department does not publish relevant data for FY 2025 by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source will be the Treasury Department.