The odds/Fed: next meeting

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?

Fed funds (upper)Fed funds (lower)2Y Treasury
0%unchanged over 7 daysResolved: No

Chance over time

22548Dec 31Jan 7Jan 14Jan 21Jan 27

Implied probability in %, from polymarket's price. Dashed line: 50%.

How it resolves

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2026 meeting.

If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 27 - 28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.