US recession in 2025?
0%unchanged over 7 daysResolved: No
Chance over time
Not enough price history yet.
Implied probability in %, from polymarket's price. Dashed line: 50%.
How it resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met:
1. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point in 2025, with the announcement made by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
2. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".