KeyBanc flags iPhone 18 event as possible negative catalyst, $250 target

A KeyBanc note reported on September 7, 2026 kept its Underweight rating and $250 target on Apple and warned that the September 9 iPhone event could hurt the stock. KeyBanc models about 80 million iPhone 18 lineup builds across fiscal Q4 2026 and Q1 2027, down from about 91 million a year earlier, and expects higher Pro pricing. The firm also noted that Apple shares have averaged a 0.72% decline on iPhone announcement days over five years.

• Underweight, $250 target; shares about $324.96 when the note was reported
• About 80M iPhone 18 lineup builds across fiscal Q4 2026 and Q1 2027 vs about 91M a year earlier
• Expected Pro price increases: $150 on the Pro and $200 on the Pro Max
• Five-year average announcement-day move of minus 0.72%